TD sees rhodium surplus ending four-year squeeze
Weakening auto demand could tip rhodium into surplus by 2027, though scarce inventories leave prices vulnerable to spikes.
Rhodium Supply-Demand Outlook
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Market Surplus Forecast: TD Commodity Strategy projects a 20,000-ounce market surplus next year, ending four consecutive years of deficits.
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Price Trajectory: Rhodium prices are forecast to decline from $9,000 per ounce to $7,600 in 2027 and $6,500 in 2028.
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Geographic Concentration: South Africa accounts for 85% of primary rhodium production, with five PGM mines providing half of global output.
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Supply Vulnerability: Low inventories (three months of demand) and long processing cycles maintain high risk of price spikes.
Corporate & Supply Chain Impact
Declining internal combustion engine sales and increased EV adoption are softening autocatalyst demand for rhodium.
Mining output remains tethered to broader PGM basket economics, as rhodium is a by-product of platinum and palladium.
Market Radar: Projected Milestones
- Projected 20,000-oz rhodium market surplus in 2026
- Price decline to $7,600/oz by 2027
- Price decline to $6,500/oz by 2028
Rhodium Market Analysis Q&A
Why does rhodium remain vulnerable despite a projected surplus? โพ
Above-ground inventories cover only three months of demand and the three-month processing cycle prevents rapid supply replenishment.
How does EV adoption affect rhodium consumption? โพ
Increased EV market share reduces demand for rhodium-heavy autocatalysts used in internal combustion engines.
This dispatch has been curated by Press Glob under international press wire fair-use reporting standards. Access the original reporting directly below.
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